Gambledore Throws GTO Out the Window at Triton Poker Super High Roller
The poker community was captivated by the Triton Poker Super High Roller Series in Monte Carlo this month, with Vladimir Korzinin stealing the spotlight on the glamorous French Riviera.
The 69-year-old Estonian, a fresh face on the high roller scene, quickly became a fan favorite thanks to his unorthodox and daring style of play against the worlds most elite competitors.
Dubbed “Gambledore” during the series, Korzinin fell just short of claiming his first Triton title after a heads-up clash with Patrik Antonius in the $200K Triton Invitational. However, he didnt have to wait long for redemption as Korzinin conquered a stacked field in the $150K NLH Event, securing a jaw-dropping $7.82 million across both events and catapulting himself to the top of Estonia’s All-Time Money List.
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Korzinins victory featured a pivotal moment in a high-stakes clash against Sam Greenwood on the final table. With eight players remaining, Korzinin held the chip lead, and Greenwood was his closest challenger. What followed was a hand that saw ICM strategy seemingly thrown out the window.
To unravel the intricacies of the hand, we asked our friends at GTO Wizard for an in-depth analysis of the tournament-defining pot. Who stayed true to GTO principles, and who went rogue?
But before diving into the breakdown, check out the final table stack sizes and payouts to appreciate just how game-changing this hand truly was.
| Player (Position) | Stack Size |
|---|---|
| Dan Smith (UTG) | 940,000 |
| Ossi Ketola (EP) | 2,500,000 |
| Vladimir Korzinin (MP) | 5,700,000 |
| Tom Fuchs (HJ) | 3,500,000 |
| Stephen Chidwick (CO) | 3,100,000 |
| Fedor Holz (BTN) | 1,600,000 |
| Bryn Kenney (SB) | 2,300,000 |
| Sam Greenwood (BB) | 4,400,400 |
| Place | Prize |
|---|---|
| 1 | $4,350,000 |
| 2 | $2,970,000 |
| 3 | $1,962,000 |
| 4 | $1,616,000 |
| 5 | $1,300,000 |
| 6 | $1,016,000 |
| 7 | $762,000 |
| 8 | $562,000 |
Preflop
Korzinin raised QQ for two big blinds, and Greenwood defended his big blind with A5. Greenwood should always just call with his hand here and generally play passively preflop by only raising AxAx for value (KxKx never raising) and sprinkle in some low offsuit AxXx as bluffs. Greenwood wants to play carefully here because he and Korzinin both have the largest stacks at the table. In these cases, there isnt much incentive to go after each other by playing aggressively, as both players have a lot to lose but not much to gain since both are already in a comfortable position to survive to later stages.
By playing aggressively in these situations, both players would leak EV to the rest of the table when playing large pots. If one player loses his large stack, the expectation of the rest of the players goes up, which is something we want to avoid when navigating big stacks in tournaments. Simply put, one player going down the ranks means that the rest of the players go up in rank.
Flop
Korzinin decided to overbet his overpair of queens on a flop of 1042, which is a very unusual play for this scenario, and Greenwood chose to go all-in for the rest of it. Heres where things get out of hand, and GTO goes out the window:
Korzinin should use only small bet sizes on the flop for the same reason we outlined for preflop. He shouldnt pick battles with more bad outcomes than good ones on average. Betting smaller would allow him to get value without risking too much of his valuable stack. Obviously, Korzinin hasnt studied ICM spots, and it seemed like he chose the overbet size because of his hand strength.
Against overbet on the flop, Greenwood would need to only call the overbet with his specific hand A5 in theory instead of jamming all-in.
The reason is that by going all-in, Korzinin would have to fold his flush draws, which Greenwood dominates. Both all-in and call are profitable options, although call outperforms all-in since, in theory. Greenwood should reach the river and win at showdown unimproved decently often while also maximizing against worse flush draws by keeping them in the hand and stacking them when we get there.
Are these assumptions accurate in reality?
Does This Mean Greenwoods All-In Was a Mistake
Exploitatively speaking, Greenwoods all-in with a gutshot and nut flush draw makes a lot of sense and is a brilliant play. If we assume that Korzinins overbet range construction is very under-bluffed and Greenwood just calls the flop, A5 will always have to fold the turn against an all-in, which will frequently happen against an opponent under-bluffing.
Instead, we believe Greenwood, being the crusher that he is, recognized that Korzinin was likely playing his hand face up and, therefore, recognized that he would not see many rivers by just calling the flop, which makes calling less attractive. By raising all-in on the flop, his hand enjoys a variety of benefits:
Looking at this nodelocked solution, we can see that once Korzinin bets too value-heavy, Greenwood should lean towards all-in or fold (A5 specifically always jamming) to avoid calling the flop and being forced to fold the turn with so much equity.
Conclusion: Is Korzinin a GTO Wizard after all?
Korzinin played his hand pretty straightforwardly, far from theoretically correct poker wizardry, so this is a GT-NO, unfortunately.
Greenwood, on the other hand, made the right exploitative adjustment against Korzinin’s face-up range construction by forcing him to go all-in at a slight equity disadvantage.
Although everyones eyes were on Mr. Gambledore, the actual wizard in this hand was Sam Greenwood!
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Calum has been a part of the PokerNews team since September 2021 after working in the UK energy sector. He played his first hand of poker in 2017 and immediately fell in love with the game. Calum has written for various poker outlets but found his home at PokerNews, where he has contributed to various articles and live updates, providing insights and reporting on major poker events, including the World Series of Poker (WSOP).
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