Was Kristen Foxens Bustout Hand GTO Wizard Approved?
It was set to be the story of the summer, with Kristen Foxen deep in the largest WSOP Main Event of all time. However, it wasn’t to be as she fell just short of a historic place at the final table, busting in 13th place for $600,000.
In her final hand, she turned her second pair and gutshot straight draw into a bluff a very interesting and advanced play from a player who had told PokerNews earlier in the tournament that playing at the PokerGO Studio had helped her hone her poker strategy skills, and prepare her for a deep run in the Main Event.
But was the turn shove actually GTO? We spoke with GTO Wizard to see if they can share some insight with the latest GTO Wizard Hand Analysis.
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The Hand
According to the PokerNews reporting, Joe Serock opened to 2,400,000 from under the gun and Kristen Foxen called from the big blind. Foxen check-called a bet of 4,000,000 on the AKJ flop and the turn was the 5.
Serock sized up to 11,600,000 and Foxen then check-raised all in for 36,900,000. Serock took off his sunglasses, picked up his cards, and called to put her at risk.
Kristen Foxen: KQJoe Serock: AK
Foxen could still hit a ten for a straight, but the 6 river bricked, and she was eliminated.
GTO Wizard Review
Initial Analysis
According to GTO Wizard, upon closer inspection, we can see that KQo always folds. According to GTO Wizard, Foxen’s GTO strategy facing the double barrel on the turn was as follows, accounting for ICM.
To understand why KQ doesnt raise, we need to first understand what makes a good bluff jam:
Let’s break each of these down:
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Ensure We Are Behind
In order for our bluff to be efficient, we need to ensure that when we are raising with a polarized range “nuts or nothing” we want our bluffs to have low equity as demonstrated in the Breakdown tab (see red bars).
We basically have a tie with ~50% equity, so we arent behind against Serocks betting range.
Get Enough Folds From Better Hands
Serock should fold worse vs. Foxens play. Jamming the turn folds out hands such as Qx, Jx, some Ax and pocket pairs without a set. Most of these hands we are ahead of when holding KsQd, so we dont fold out much better hands.
This is how Serock should defend against the all-in:
Make Sure We Have Some Equity
Even if we were to be called, our improvability isnt looking good either; straights arent as strong on 4 liners. We sometimes split the pot when we hit our straight with KQ.
Combodraws like Q7 or 108 are much better to make this play with. The advantage these hands have over KQ is that they have more live outs when Serock calls, as well as folding out more better hands.
Unblock Villain’s Folds
Our opponent should be bet/folding a lot of Qx gutshots without a heart (QxQx, QxJx as well as Q9s-Q7s), which we are blocking a large part of with the Q. Although less important of a factor in this hand, its still worth pointing out.
Conclusion
While Serock had an easy time with his decisions in this hand, Foxen had a tough last hand in the WSOP Main 2024 which ended up being a costly blunder. According to our estimates using the Compare EV tool, her all-in costs a whopping -$67,788.48 on average in theory.
Still, this play took a lot of guts so we gotta hand it to her being fearless at the table and having the heart to pull off such a power-move.
Based in the United Kingdom, Will started working for PokerNews as a freelance live reporter in 2015 and joined the full-time staff in 2019. He now works as Managing Editor. He graduated from the University of Kent in 2017 with a B.A. in German. He also holds an NCTJ Diploma in Sports Journalism.
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